Trump sweeps Iowa caucus, sets himself up to be Republican nominee for President

Washington: Kicking off his 2024 electoral journey with a big win, Donald J Trump, the former US President, won 51% of the vote of registered Republican voters in the party’s first primary caucus in Iowa. The win establishes Trump’s dominance over the Grand Old Party, makes him the clear frontrunner in the battle to become the Republican nominee for the next president of the US, and sets the stage for a likely rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden this November.

Trump’s decisive triumph — he was declared the victor just half-an-hour into counting and reports indicate he won 98 of the state’s 99 counties — is one more step towards an unprecedented situation in American democracy where a candidate who rejected the last electoral result, faces four criminal indictments and 91 charges of felony, and is barred from the ballot in two states, may become president again.

Even as Trump won, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who had campaigned extensively in the state, came second with 21.2% of the vote, narrowly beating former South Carolina governor, the Indian-origin Nikki Haley, who won 19.1% of the vote. A setback for DeSantis in Iowa would have crippled his campaign, for Haley has the clear edge over him in the next primary in New Hampshire. Alternately, if Haley had won, it would have positioned her as the clear hope for the non-Trump Republican coalition and independent voters who lean Right. But the Iowa result helps DeSantis remain in the battle and the future of Haley’s campaign now heavily rests on New Hampshire and then her home state of South Carolina. To be sure, given Trump’s surge, unless his candidacy collapses, the second slot means little politically.

Vivek Ramaswamy, the other Indian-American candidate in the Republican fray, dropped out of the race after winning 8.6% of the vote and coming a distant fourth in Iowa. After broadly echoing Trump’s political positions and defending the former president for much of his campaign, the 38-year old, who attained high visibility on a largely self-funded campaign, endorsed Trump formally on Monday and is likely to position himself for a senior position in a potential Trump administration.

In his first response after the Iowa results, Trump began with a rare message of unity given his track record of partisan speeches aimed for the core base. He said, “I really think it is time for everybody, our country, to come together. We want everybody, whether it is Republican or Democrat or liberal or conservative, to come together. It would be so nice to come together and straighten out the world, straighten out all the problems, straighten out the death and destruction we are witnessing. I want to make that a big part of the message.”

But after acknowledging the support of his family, Republican leaders who backed him, and even nodding at his rivals, Trump reverted to his core campaign messages. He committed to the idea of “drill, baby, drill”, a call that is as much an appeal for energy exploration and independence as rejection of the environmental and climate crisis. He promised to “seal up the border” to respond to the “invasion” of “terrorists..people from prison and mental institutions..” across the southern border, an appeal to both legitimate concerns over illegal immigration and more bigoted concerns over the changing demographics of the country. “We are going to have a deportation level that we haven’t seen in this country for a long time,” the presidential aspirant announced.

Secure within his party, Trump eyed the general elections as he attacked Biden, calling him the “worst president” that the US had ever seen. He labelled the legal cases against him as “Biden indictments” and alleged it was part of “election interference”, a charge that the administration has rejected by pointing to the autonomy of the Department of Justice. Trump doubled down on his claim that the 2020 election was stolen, citing a poll where he said 82% people had said the elections weren’t honest and promised changes in the electoral and voting processes.

Trump also claimed that under him, the US had the “greatest economy” in its history, and attacked Biden on inflation, calling inflation a “country-killer”. Trump promised “peace through strength”, reiterating an old claim that if he was president, Russia won’t have invaded Ukraine (“Putin and I get along fine and that’s a good thing, not a bad thing”), and Israel won’t have been invaded (“It all comes from Iran”). Trump said he would not let China do what it wanted, while again saying he got along with President Xi Jinping and called him a strong leader.

In the American political system, both parties choose their presidential nominee through a convention where delegates from different states vote for their preferred candidates. For this, candidates first have to win primary battles in various states, which have their own distinct rules on the electoral and voting procedure and how to allot delegates to candidates. This cycle traditionally begins in Iowa which sends 40 delegates to the Republican convention based on percentage of votes polled.

In around 1600 caucuses in a freezing Iowa on Monday evening, registered Republican voters met, consulted each other and voted for their preferred candidate. Turnout was low with a little over 100,000 voters, a drop from the 187,000 voters who opted to vote in 2016, a drop largely attributed to the poor weather conditions.

While Democrats used to begin their electoral cycle in Iowa too, under Joe Biden, the party has shifted its first primary battle to South Carolina on the grounds that the latter is more diverse than Iowa and better represents the diverse Democratic demographic. The fact that Biden’s 2020 campaign got momentum after winning South Carolina, after he had done poorly in Iowa, is also seen as having contributed to the decision. In this cycle, with the President himself seeking re-election, Biden faces limited challenge and is set to be the Democratic candidate.

Responding to Trump’s Iowa win, Biden put out a fundraising appeal and posted on X, “Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point. But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow”. Trump and his supporters use the Make America Great Again slogan to project a story of current despair and sell the dream of American revival, while Biden uses the acronym to depict Trump as leading the extremist and dominant wing of the Republican Party out to threaten American democracy and constitution.

In recent months, the 81-year old Biden has seen a further drop in his favourability ratings and faced criticism on his approach to the Israel-Hamas war, economy and cost of living and illegal immigration.