Tensions Rise: Maldives Ministers Face Action as President Returns from China

Tensions have escalated between India and the Maldives following derogatory remarks made by three junior ministers from the island nation, prompting a verbal demarche from India. While the Indian government expresses its displeasure over the comments directed at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speculation arises regarding potential actions against the errant ministers upon the return of Maldives President Mohammed Muizzu from his visit to China.

The comments made by the ministers have not only irked New Delhi but have also raised questions about the political dynamics between the two countries. Many observers believe that the ministers might have received tacit approval from President Muizzu to voice their sentiments, especially as he embarks on a fundraising trip to China. The strategic interests of the Xi Jinping regime in the Indian Ocean, particularly in setting up bases akin to Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, contribute to the complex geopolitical landscape.

Adding to the complexity, China sought permission from President Muizzu to allow its surveillance vessel, Hong Yang 3, to conduct deep-sea exploration off the coast of the Maldives between January and May 2024. As of now, the approval for this exploration has not been granted. This move underscores China's strategic engagement in the region and its interest in the maritime activities around the Maldives.

President Muizzu's political posturing against India becomes more evident when considering his recent diplomatic moves. He made Turkey his first destination after taking office, secured a substantial loan of USD 200 million from the UAE and Saudi Arabia during his visit to COP28 in Dubai, and now, his trip to Beijing raises eyebrows in India. His anti-India stance, coupled with strategic engagements with other nations, reflects a deliberate shift in diplomatic priorities.

In the midst of this diplomatic spat, there are expectations that Male will further toughen its stance, especially leading up to the Majlis election in April 2024. President Muizzu's electoral success was marked by an "Out India" campaign, and his actions suggest an attempt to distance the Maldives from perceived Indian influence. He has even proposed replacing unarmed Indian Air Force and Navy crew members with civilian counterparts, despite no armed Indian troops being stationed in the Maldives.

India, while asserting that the responsibility to mend bilateral ties lies with Male, is wary of the potential use of an anti-India card by President Muizzu to garner financial support from nations opposed to New Delhi. The historical context of Sri Lanka employing a similar strategy, leading to economic repercussions, is not lost on Indian policymakers.

As the diplomatic standoff unfolds, the international community watches closely, recognizing the delicate balance between strategic interests, political posturing, and the economic well-being of the Maldives. The outcome will not only impact bilateral relations but may also set a precedent for diplomatic engagements in the region.