Maharashtra alliances to start seat sharing talks

BJP-led Maha Yuti (MY) and the rival Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Congress and Uddhav Thackeray-headed Shiv Sena group and Sharad Pawar-led NCP group would commence final seat-sharing negotiations soon in view of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

The polls are going to be a direct contest between the ruling MY-NDA and MVA-I.N.D.I.A opposition bloc.

Maharashtra accounts for 48 Lok Sabha seats - next only to 80 of Uttar Pradesh, which commands the highest strength among the states.

The formulae of 2014 and 2019 general elections would not be applicable this time because of the splits in the 57-year-old Shiv Sena and 25-year-old NCP.

If one looks at the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP Democratic Front (DF) were pitted against each other.

In 2014, the BJP contested 24 seats and won 23 while Shiv Sena contested 20 seats and won 18, while the Congress contested 22 seats and won two while the NCP contested 21 seats and got 4.

In 2019, the BJP contested 25 seats and bagged 23 while Shiv Sena contested 23 and got 18, the Congress contested 25 seats and won one seat while the NCP contested 19 seats and won four.

However, the state politics changed after the 2019 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly polls when the Thackeray-headed Shiv Sena split with BJP, its saffron alliance partner for 30 years and joined hands with the DF to form the MVA.

In June-July, 2022, the Uddhav Thackeray-headed MVA was toppled by Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde who became the Chief Minister with BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis becoming the Deputy Chief Minister.

In June-July, 2023, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP was split and his nephew Ajit Pawar became the Deputy Chief Minister.

After the split, in Shiv Sena, the ruling Shinde-group commands a strength of 13 MPs while the Shiv Sena (UBT) five.

On the other hand, the Sharad Pawar-Supriya Sule-led parent group commands a strength of three while Ajit Pawar one.

“The seat-sharing is going to be a very complex affair,” informed sources said, adding that it would take time and much depends on the BJP high-command when it comes to NDA while as far as I.N.D.I.A is concerned the three chief allies are in for a tussle.

The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP ruling coalition has set an ambitious target of winning 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats and 215 of the 288 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly seats. The other parties of the BJP-led Maha Yuti includes Ramdas Athawale-led Republic Party of India (Athawale), Hitendra Thakur-led Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, Bachchu Kadu-led Prahar Janshakti Party, Prof Jogendra Kawade-led People’s Republican Party, Sadabhau Khot-led Rayat Kranti Sanghatana, Vinay Kore-led Jansurajya Party, Mahadev Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Party.

On the other hand, though the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Prakash Ambedker-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) have principally agreed for an alliance, it has not yet been invited to I.N.D.I.A. Besides, in some pockets, the MVA would face challenges from the K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).