How big a challenge is BJP's increasing 'vote swing' in Bengal for Mamata Banerjee?

This time there is a fierce contest between BJP and TMC in West Bengal. Election strategist Prashant Kishore predicts that BJP will become the number one party in West Bengal this time. The same conflict between the two parties is visible on the streets from Kolkata to Delhi. While TMC is on the streets accusing BJP of misuse of central agencies, BJP is raising questions on TMC regarding corruption and women's safety after incidents of Sandeshkhali. On the other hand, Congress and CPM are trying to make the elections triangular in West Bengal.

West Bengal is one of those states where the unity of the Indian alliance has broken and the allies have contested the elections against each other.

Out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, TMC had got 19 seats in 2009 with 31.2% votes. In 2014, it had got 34 seats with 39.4% votes. In 2019, it got 22 seats with 43.3% votes. In the last election, there was a swing of about 4 percent votes in favor of TMC but it had to suffer the loss of 12 seats.

BJP has emerged as the main opposition party in the last ten years and now it is giving equal competition to TMC. In 2009, BJP got only one seat with 6.14% votes. In 2014, BJP's vote increased by almost ten percent to 16.8% but it got only two seats. But BJP achieved tremendous success in the last Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, BJP's vote increased to 40.3% and it got 18 seats. That means there was a swing of 23.5% in favor of BJP. There was an increase of 16 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as compared to 2014.

Actually, behind this rise of BJP is the Modi factor as well as the decline of Left Congress. The votes of both these parties went to BJP in large numbers. Therefore, while TMC's vote percentage continued to increase, BJP got the benefit of getting the votes of Left Congress. But in this election the Left is contesting in Congress alliance. Only the results will tell who they will harm more.

In this election, left parties are contesting on 28 seats and Congress on 13 seats. In 2019, both the parties contested the elections separately. Left Front got 6.3% votes and Congress 5.6% votes. While Congress was successful in winning two seats, the Left Front did not get any seat. BJP has set a target of winning 35 seats in this Lok Sabha elections.

Let us see what are the strengths and weaknesses of BJP to reach this figure.

Modi Factor - BJP is banking on Modi's popularity

CAA - BJP also has high hopes regarding CAA in Bengal

Sandeshkhali issue – BJP is putting pressure on TMC regarding the Sandeshkhali incident.

Corruption allegations against TMC- BJP would also like to take advantage of the allegations of corruption against many TMC leaders.

Challenges before BJP:

Disintegration in the organization after the defeat in the 2021 assembly.

Eight MLAs and 2 MPs went to TMC, one came back

Internal differences among leaders

Poor performance in local body elections

Left Congress Alliance

After coming to power in Bengal for the third consecutive term, Mamata Banerjee's party is trying to repeat its 2014 performance and present its strong claim in Delhi. However, this will not be easy for TMC.

What is the strength of TMC?

Mamta Banerjee's popularity

Strong organization

Scattering of opposition votes

Minority vote bank

Social welfare schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar, Kanyashree, Sabuj Sathi, Yuvashree, Elderly Pension

What is the weakness of TMC?

There is a possibility of division in Muslim votes due to Left Congress alliance.

Questions on record on women's safety after Sandeshkhali.

Corruption allegations against TMC leaders.

Many former ministers and leaders are in jail in teacher recruitment and ration scam.