Relief for farmers, Meteorological Department predicts favourable monsoon

Summer has started in large parts of the country and meteorologists have seen early signs of a favorable monsoon season this year due to diminishing El Nino conditions and less snowfall in Eurasia. India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said the large-scale climatic events are favorable for the south-west monsoon, which is important for the largely rainfall-dependent Indian economy.

Mohapatra said, “El Nino is fading this year. This could become a neutral situation by the beginning of June.” He said this while referring to the warming of the central Pacific Ocean, which is considered one of the factors affecting the southwest monsoon.

He said the second half of the July-September monsoon season could see La Nina conditions, which refers to the cooling of the central Pacific Ocean. Mahapatra said, “La Nina is good for the Indian monsoon. And neutral conditions are good. However, El Nino is not good. “In 60 percent of the cases, El Nino has had a negative impact on the Indian monsoon, but last year it had no negative impact.”

He said, “This year too the snow cover is less. This is another positive factor. “Hence large scale processes are favorable for monsoon.” The south-west monsoon provides about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is important for the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector accounts for about 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and employs more than half of its 1.4 billion population.

India received “below average” cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long period average of 868.6 mm in the 2023 monsoon season, which was attributed to the strong El Nino.

IMD will release the southwest monsoon forecast later this month. The IMD considers three large-scale climate events to forecast monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is caused by the different temperatures on the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean and the third is the snow cover on the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which is caused by the different temperatures of the landmass. It also impacts the Indian monsoon through differential heating.