Monsoon likely to be ‘normal’ at about 102% of LPA: weather forecaster Skymet

Monsoon, the lifeblood of India’s economy that delivers nearly 70% of the country’s rain, is likely to be “normal” at about 102% of long period average (LPA), with an error margin of +/-5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday. The LPA for the June to September period is 868.6mm. Rainfall of 96-104% of LPA is considered normal.

Skymet said there was a 10% chance of excess rainfall (more than 110% of LPA), 20% of above normal (between 105% to 110% of LPA), 45% of normal (between 96 to 104% of LPA), 15% of below normal rain (between 90 to 95% of LPA), and 10% of drought (rainfall less than 90% of LPA)

“El Nino [which is characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and has a high correlation with warmer summers, drought, and weaker monsoon rains in India] is swiftly flipping over to La Nina [which has the opposite of El Nino and is characterised by cooler currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific]. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase,” said Skymet managing director Jatin Singh.

A preliminary forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which impacts the monsoon along with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this season will work in tandem with La Nina for better monsoon prospects, Skymet Weather said. “Notwithstanding, the start of the season is expected to be aberrated on account of the quick transition from El Nino to La Nina. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and unequitable for the season, as a whole.”

The World Meteorological Organisation last month said El Nino has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to impact the global climate for at least half of this year despite a gradual weakening trend. Indian experts said they saw it as a positive development, with likely no impact on the monsoon as the El Nino usually does.

The monsoon arrived in Kerala last year on June 8, seven days after it normally does. It usually arrives in the southern state around June 1 before advancing northwards and covering the entire country by July 15. As much as 51% of India’s farmed area accounting for 40% of production is rain-fed and 47% of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood.

IMD declares the arrival of monsoon in Kerala based on features that include 60% of 14 weather stations in Kerala and Mangaluru (Karnataka) reporting rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10.