How BJP fares in race for 2024 Lok Sabha election

The race for Lok Sabha started to gain momentum, and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, as well as the Opposition, are pulling out all the stops to give a head-to-head challenge to each other. However, given the whirlwinds in national politics, the impetus is currently drifting towards the ruling party.

The inauguration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya, one of the BJP's biggest clarion calls, the Supreme Court verdict on the abrogation of Article 370, fissures in the INDIA bloc and the political vortex in Bihar can be attributed to the right-wing party's gain. The undertone of the constituents can only be revealed after the poll results.

A column in the UK's Guardian predicted a hat trick for the BJP, citing political analysts predicting it as the plausible outcome given the country's current political landscape. It noted how, despite some resistance against the BJP in the pockets of south and east India, the Opposition at the national level appears to be “weak” and “fragmented”.

Also read: After Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar snub, INDIA bloc's Lok Sabha poll prospects take early and big hits

What gives the BJP a push in the momentum?

Supreme Court verdict on Article 370 abrogation

One of the poll planks for the BJP in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was to abrogate the ‘special status’ of Jammu and Kashmir by repealing Article 370 of the Constitution. So, it did on August 6, 2019. On December 11, 2023, the Supreme Court upheld the government's decision to abrogate the article.

The apex court's verdict gave a big boost to the BJP, and it blew off the steam of the Oppositon's criticisms against the ruling party, ranging from demonetisation and unemployment to the Pegasus row.

Much of the BJP's victory after the verdict could be attributed to the difference of opinion among the INDIA bloc members. One of its members, the Aam Aadmi Party, supported revoking Article 370 in 2019. Meanwhile, the Left had been urging the reinstatement of the special status, slightly contrary to Congress' stance. Although opposed to the central government's move, the Congress never demanded that the article be re-implemented.

Ram temple inauguration

It was the BJP's long-term promise to build a temple for Lord Ram in what was claimed to be his birthplace in Ayodhya. The temple was consecrated when the BJP-led government was in power. According to political strategists, this has galvanised voters across the country, which may convert into 400-plus seats for the party in the Lok Sabha with a 50% vote share – a goal set out by Union home minister Amit Shah during the last year of his tenure as party president.

The temple inauguration pushing up to the doors of the Lok Sabha elections was envisioned months back when the BJP decided to run an outreach programme related to the Ram temple till March. The party chalked out a host of events to broaden the drive.

The positioning of PM Modi at the core of the Ram temple construction has played its part. From laying the foundation stone to attending the temple's consecration ceremony as the ‘yajman’, the prime minister is what the BJP claims the frontrunner in the ongoing march in India's economic, political and strategic arenas in line with the religious fervour.

Rift in INDIA bloc

The Opposition's aim to take on the BJP in the upcoming national election seems to have taken a hit after the Congress, one of the top members of the INDIA bloc, met with unprecedented roadblocks in West Bengal during the ongoing Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. INDIA bloc ally Trinamool Congress and the state unit of Congress are at loggerheads over seat-sharing talks for the general elections, prompting CM Mamata Banerjee to “go alone” for the polls. Meanwhile, another ally, the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab, is reluctant to come to a mid-point with Congress over seat-sharing, further widening the rift within the coalition.

But, the INDIA bloc dealt a major blow on Sunday when its convenor, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar, dissolved its ‘Mahagathbandhan’ coalition in the state and resigned as the CM, only to reinstate to the post but with BJP's support this time. This has shaken the ground for the opposition alliance and given a boost to the BJP's bid to reclaim the Lok Sabha majority.