A Reliable Study on Third Wave of Corona

After the second dose, India has 87,000 thousand Covid infections, which is an alarming increase. During the first week of August, India had a rise in covid cases for eight days in a row. More than 255,000 coronavirus infections were recorded between July 27 and August 2, an increase of 8% over the previous week. On August 9, just 27,421 new cases were recorded in 24 hours, the fewest since March. According to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the second wave of covid has not yet ended; rather, its severity has reduced. If measures are disregarded, the number of instances in a day may be on the rise. For example, on March 8, when the number of cases fell from 18,000 days to 15,000 per day, it reached 40,000 per day in precisely a week, and the second wave started.

According to Prof. K. Srinath Reddy, "We must be cautious as long as a significant portion of the population is not vaccinated. We should not presume that community resistance has been established; there are still areas where the virus has not spread. The strength of the third wave will be determined by how far we have progressed in adopting covid compliant behavior."

According to the fourth Sero study of the ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research), which was published in July, about 68 percent of Indians have acquired antibodies against covid. The study showed that Seropositivity was high in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, and Jharkhand, but low in other states including Kerala, Haryana, Maharashtra, Assam, and the North-East. The greater the seropositivity rate, the more likely it is that antibodies against covid exist in a significant proportion of the population.

Interstate travel is a risk factor

The poll findings may offer many people a false feeling of security, but experts warn that now is not the time to relax their guard. "Interstate travel is still happening," says Dr. Rakesh Mishra, former head of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB). People from high-seropositivity states are at risk of infection if they go to a low-seropositivity state. It is state-level seropositivity in a large country like India; there is no national data that establishes hard immunity. CCMB is a member of the INSACOG (Indian SARS-COV-2 Genomics Consortium).

Delta and Alpha Variant

However, whether or not the third wave happened will be determined by the overall national level figure. More data, according to experts, will emerge from areas where the spread of the delta variant of the virus has so far been reduced. Studies show that delta variants are 40 to 60 percent more infectious than alpha strains. Importantly, the current rise in infection cases comes from states that are not on the list of places whose transition data reached alarmingly high levels during the second wave of May.

Cases are increasing in North East

At the moment, Kerala has the largest number of active cases, accounting for about half of the total national infections that arrive daily. The ICMR study found the states with the lowest seropositivity (44 percent). On July 25, there were 938 new cases in Mizoram with the greatest infection rate ever reported for a single day. Previously, the state has seen a little rise in new cases. Cases are also on the increase in Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh in the North East. As a result, some scientists believe that the third wave will impact regions where delta variations have been unable to spread successfully. "Because locations are now being unlocked and limitations on activity are being lifted, delta strain will spread if covid is not treated regularly," Dr. Mishra warns.

India's R-value is higher than 1

From a national perspective, just a single number point may indicate the lows in the covid-R (reproductive) number curve. The Central Government data on August 4 indicates that India's R is now higher than 1, for the first time since the second wave peaked on May 7. Having more than one R-number indicates that more than one individual is infected by an infected person. As an example, A hundred sick individuals may now infect a hundred more. "R should be less than one," argues famous virologist T. Jacob John, "to demonstrate that the infection does not exhibit the curve of the slope or the propagation of the virus." R number 1.4 may be found in both Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. It is 1.3 in Lakshadweep, 1.2 in Tamil Nadu, Mizoram, and Karnataka, and 1.1 in Kerala, Meghalaya, Haryana, Goa, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh. In Maharashtra and Delhi, the R-value is more than one.

The positivity rate in 44 districts exceeds 10%

According to health ministry statistics, 18 districts have seen an increase in infection cases, with the majority of these being in Kerala. These districts include Maharashtra, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh, in addition to Maharashtra, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh (10 districts). At the same time, the test positive rate in 44 districts exceeds 10%. The number of sick individuals screened is referred to as the test positive rate. The positive percentage in the remaining 53 districts ranges from 5 to 10%. "We should adopt urgent entertainment measures in areas with high positive rates," says Dr. Randeep Guleria, Director of AIIMS (All India Institute of Medical Sciences) in Delhi.

Remember to follow covid proper behavior, as it is the only way to guarantee your and your loved ones' safety. Your covid appropriate behavior is the only thing that can break the chain. Wear masks in public areas and urge others to do the same, since this is the most basic level of protection against coronavirus transmission. In the second wave, we saw how the medical system crumbled. By demonstrating proper behavior as a responsible citizen, you may guarantee that this does not happen in the third wave.

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