BJP May Play the Deputy Prime Minister Card — A Win-Win Strategy

The coalition-dependent government at the Centre appears to have decided to strengthen its political position. For this purpose, it would not be surprising if the ruling party soon follows the path once taken by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Reports suggest that the party may consider creating the post of Deputy Prime Minister in the next cabinet expansion or reshuffle. However, the idea has not yet been finalized, largely because the complexities of coalition politics have made it difficult to decide which alliance partner should be honored with the position — Nitish Kumar or Chandrababu Naidu.

Although in terms of parliamentary numbers the Telugu Desam Party’s claim could be considered stronger, the way the Bharatiya Janata Party appears to be positioning itself in Bihar — aiming to build a full-fledged “lotus government” in the state — indicates that this new position may actually be designed for Nitish Kumar.

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The Bihar Card and Nitish Kumar

The manner in which the BJP has suddenly played its political move in Bihar, placing “Sushasan Babu” Nitish Kumar — who currently heads a majority government in the state — in a situation where he has had to file nomination papers for the Rajya Sabha, suggests that a larger political role may be being prepared for him. Nitish Kumar has already handled key portfolios at the Centre in the past, including Agriculture, Surface Transport, and Railways.

If the BJP were to elevate Nitish Kumar to the post of Deputy Prime Minister, it could also provide a convincing answer to the questions being raised about his removal from active state politics in Bihar. The reality is that today the BJP stands on a political footing in Bihar as well as at the national level where a possible exit of Nitish Kumar from the alliance may not cause significant damage.

Nitish Kumar’s party currently holds twelve seats in the Lok Sabha and four in the Rajya Sabha. By comparison, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party has sixteen members in the Lok Sabha and two in the Rajya Sabha. From a purely numerical standpoint, Naidu’s claim to the Deputy Prime Minister’s post could therefore appear stronger. Moreover, awarding the position to Naidu could potentially benefit the BJP not only in maintaining stability in the central government but also in upcoming elections in southern states.

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The Parliamentary Arithmetic Still Favors NDA

Interestingly, parliamentary arithmetic suggests that even if Chandrababu Naidu were to withdraw support from the BJP-led alliance, the stability of the central government might not be significantly affected. At present, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enjoys a strength of around 293 members in Parliament.

Since the Telugu Desam Party has only sixteen MPs, the BJP and its allies would still remain above the majority mark of 273 even without them.

Even more intriguing is the scenario where both the TDP and the Janata Dal (United) — together accounting for twenty-eight MPs — were to leave the NDA. In such a case, the alliance would still retain approximately 265 MPs. The government would then require only about seven additional MPs to maintain a majority in the Lok Sabha — and that too assuming full attendance of all members in the House.

Another interesting possibility emerges if both the TDP and JD(U) were to join the INDIA alliance. Even in that scenario, the opposition bloc would still fall short of forming a government. The INDIA alliance currently has around 234 MPs in Parliament. Even after adding the MPs of the TDP and JD(U), the total would rise only to about 264. That would still leave the opposition at least nine or ten MPs short of the majority mark.

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A Seat of Grace, Not a Claim

In such a mathematical situation, if the BJP decides to elevate someone to the post of Deputy Prime Minister, it would essentially be an act of political generosity rather than recognition of a decisive claim.

With assembly elections approaching in four southern states in the coming months, it is reasonable to expect that the BJP’s political favor might tilt more toward Chandrababu Naidu. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

However, one irony is difficult to ignore. The BJP has long positioned itself as a party opposed to dynastic politics and has largely kept the relatives of many of its top leaders away from the political arena. Yet, in the cases of Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, the dynamics of coalition politics may compel it to accommodate precisely the kind of family-centric political influence it has often criticized.