Lucknow: The declaration by Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati that she will not join hands with the Bhartiya Janta Party to form a government if her party does not get a majority , at this stage, in the current election, has come as a big surprise to many in the political circles.
To many in these circles, this categorical statement made at a rally in Kanpur, about 80 kilometres from here, is untimely and unwarranted. All of them are wondering why did she make a statement like this?
A shrewd politician like her always makes a statement at a right time and at a right place. It is in this light that many believe that she has made this statement not without a motive or purpose.
So far only first phase of election has been completed. The election for the second phase will be held on Wednesday. The state will go to polls on five more days with a gap of four days each.So, there was no hurry. she could have waited to make this statement.
One reason could be the voting in the first phase. In the first phase of election, the community votes were divided between the SP and the BSP. so, she might have feared that if pattern remained unchanged her dream of dislodging the SP and forming government will remain a dream. This may have influenced this announcement.
This can attract those voters who may go to the Samajwadi Party- Congress alliance to defeat the BJP which is the community's main agenda,
Another reason is the fear in some political circles that the state is heading towards a hung assembly because of a tight triangular contest. All the three parties have their areas of influence and support. As such, not only will the victory margin be lower but no party is likely to get absolute majority.
The BSP is a major political force and is likely to bag a good many seats but not enough to form a government on its own. The party cannot support the SP because of its bitter experiences. The party had faced a storm after withdrawal of support to SP which had led to imposition of President's rule. This leaves no other choice for the party except going to the BJP.
This possibility was being discussed in many quarters. But this kind of reports could cause much damage to the party. Muslims , especially, could switch over to its main rival,the SP.
However, most of the political pundits believe that in case of a hung assembly she is more likely to seek support from the BJP than the SP. Besides the infamous State Guest House case , the other reason is that both SP and the BSP depend on Muslims to earn majority. A coalition government with that party will be unhelpful for the party in the long run. In future it will be difficult for her to convince Muslim voters that she is her only supporter and get a majority .
Whatever she may claim, this election is a final for her. She has badly suffered twice, in the 2012 assembly election and 2014 Lok Sabha election. Bad result and out of power for ten years is something she cannot like and live with.