New Delhi: In the first official assessment of the situation arising out of invalidation high-value currency notes, the government has estimated that ten per cent of banned notes are unlikely to be deposited in banks, both in public and private sectors, according to sources here on Saturday .
Going by this assessment , scrapped notes to the tune of Rs 1.5 lakh crores out of the total 15 lakh crore are unlikely to reach the banks. Either these notes have been already invested in real estates, jewelries or some other such escape routes or destroyed.
The government assessment is more or less on the lines of economists who had predicted that the Reserve Bank of India should not expect more than Rs 13 to 13.5 lakh crores to be returned to the banks. The government has shared its assessment with the Supreme Court which is hearing a bunch of petitions on the demonetisation issue.
Whatever may be the position at the end of the period allowed by the government to deposit the scrapped notes, the RBI will be a gainer. It will have no liability to pay for the amount going out of circulation. It was believed by some economists that the bank will pay special or additional dividend to the government for the money not deposited in the bank.
However, in the latest statement by the central bank it has been made clear that it has no proposal to pay any dividend to the government in this connection. Those holding banned notes can deposit them till December 30 without any declaration of source and by March end with the declaration.
Different figures have been given for the banned notes deposited in the banks so far. It is believed in some official quarters that more than ten lakh crores have been received by the banks so far. Others call these figures highly exaggerated and hope that even though the total was less than that there will be rush for deposits in the next fortnight. This group also believes that Rs 1.5 to Rs 2 lakh crores will remain undeposited. There is no report about the deposits made till date.
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