Newstrack's analysis of upcoming assembly elections 2019
A total of 51 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha constituencies across 17 states and one union territory observed voting that concluded peacefully on Monday.
Lucknow: A total of 51 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha constituencies across 17 states and one union territory observed voting that concluded peacefully on Monday. The Election Commission of India (ECI) declared the schedule for the Assembely Elections in Oct 2019 in Maharastra and Haryana states.
The Saffron Party is believed to achieve massive victory in Haryana and is also expected to emerge as the prime party in Maharashtra along with its alliance Shiv Sena in the October 21 Assembly elections.
Survey by Newstrack reaveals following data in the state of Maharashtra.
The BJP-led NDA is expected to get 182-206 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, leaving the Congress-led UPA far behind with 72-98 seats.
Surveying the regions of this state, Mumbai is expected to give 30-34 seats to the NDA, Konkan 32-36 seats, Marathwada 23-27 seats, North Maharashtra 19-23, Vidarbha 37-41 and West Maharashtra 41-45 seats.
On the contrary, UPA is expected to win 0-6 seats in Mumbai region, 2-6 in Konkan, 18-22 seats in Marathwada region, 12-16 in North Maharashtra region, 16-20 in Vidarbha region and 24-28 in West Maharashtra region.
Talking about vote share, Newstrack’s survey predicts that the NDA is expected to get 47.3 per cent, UPA 38.5 per cent and others 14.3 per cent.
Dating to the last 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP secured 122 seats and its ally bagged 63. On the other hand, the Congress managed to attain 42 seats and its coalition partner NCP had bagged 41.
The BJP had got a vote share of 31.15 per cent, the Shiv Sena 19.3 per cent and Congress 18 per cent.
Coming to Haryana, predictions from Newstrack’s survey are as follows.
The BJP is expected to bag 79-87 seats in the 90-member Assembly, while the Congress is projected to get only between 1 and 7.
Region wise, the BJP is expected to get 25 seats from Ahirwal, 16 from Bagar, 16 from Jatland and 26 from Kurukshetra, according to the pre-poll survey.
The Congress is expected to bag 2 seats from Ahirwal and just one from Jatland.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to get 47.5 per cent, the Congress 21.4 per cent, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) 9.3 per cent and others 21.4 per cent.
In the last Assembly elections, the BJP secured 47 seats with a vote share of 33.2 per cent, while the INLD had got 19 seats with a vote share of 24.1 per cent and Congress 15 seats with a vote share of 20.6 per cent
Expected seats win ratio
Total of 288 seats
BJP-Shiv Sena -- 194
Congress-NCP -- 86
Others -- 8
Total of 90 seats
BJP -- 79
Cong -- 7
Others – 4